🔗 Share this article From Grudging Respect to Unease: Moscow Considers the Ousting of Venezuela's Leader. A unexpected operation against the capital city under cover of darkness, culminating in the seizure of the nation's leader. Within a day, the foreign force announces its plan to rule for an indefinite period. That was the scenario Russia's president imagined his full-scale invasion of Ukraine playing out in February 2022. In reality, it was Donald Trump who executed it in Venezuela, in a move labeled illegal internationally, spiriting away the Kremlin's longtime partner Nicolás Maduro, who is set to be tried in New York. Public Fury, Private Calculations Officially, Moscow's representatives have reacted with anger, condemning the attack as a blatant breach of global norms and a dangerous precedent. Yet beyond the official statements, there is a sense of reluctant admiration – and even envy – at the effectiveness of a power grab that Russia once imagined, but failed to execute due to a series of intelligence blunders and Ukraine's strong resistance. “The operation was carried out with precision,” wrote the Kremlin-aligned online channel a popular military blog. “Most likely, this is exactly how our 'special military operation' was supposed to unfold: fast, decisive and conclusive. It’s hard to believe Russia's top general expected to be engaged in combat for this long.” Such commentary have fueled a atmosphere of introspection among pro-war voices, with some openly questioning how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine morphed into a long and bloody conflict. Olga Uskova, said she felt “embarrassment” on Russia's behalf given how brazen the US intervention appeared to be. “Within 24 hours, the US detained Venezuela's leader and seemingly wrapped up his own 'special military operation,’” she stated. Allies in Decline For over twenty years, Venezuela worked to build a web of anti-American allies – from Moscow and Beijing to Havana and Tehran – in the hope of helping to shape a alternative bloc able to challenge Washington. However, even with Russia's foreign minister vowing backing for the Caracas government just in late December, few serious analysts ever believed Moscow would come to his rescue. Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, seen other important partners fall from power or weaken sharply – from Syria's leader to an increasingly weakened Iran – laying bare the limits of the Kremlin's global influence. “For Russia, the situation is deeply uncomfortable,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a key ally and fellow traveler, and Maduro and Putin have long-term relations, forcing Moscow into no option but to express outrage. Yet providing any tangible support to a country so distant is simply not feasible – for practical and operational reasons.” Focus on the Main Front There is also a more practical calculation. Putin's priority, experts note, is Ukraine – and keeping a productive dialogue with the US administration on that front far outweighs the destiny of Caracas. “The Russian and American leaders are presently engaged with a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a much larger strategic game with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a secondary concern,” the analyst concluded. Tangible Costs and New Threats Nevertheless, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a pro-American administration takes power in Caracas, American military specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including advanced Russian-made systems. Those include S-300VM air-defence systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025. Moscow has also provided billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered. A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is oil: American control over Venezuela's enormous oilfields could depress international oil prices, endangering one of Russia's most important sources of income. “If our American 'partners' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.” A Bleak Silver Lining? Yet, some in Moscow see room for a bleak kind of optimism. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they argue, could deal a final blow to the rules-based international order and usher in a more nakedly power-based world order – one where power, rather than rules, shapes outcomes. “Team Trump is tough and cynical in advancing its national interests,” wrote Russia's former president approvingly. “Ousting Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The law of the strongest is evidently more powerful than international law.”
A unexpected operation against the capital city under cover of darkness, culminating in the seizure of the nation's leader. Within a day, the foreign force announces its plan to rule for an indefinite period. That was the scenario Russia's president imagined his full-scale invasion of Ukraine playing out in February 2022. In reality, it was Donald Trump who executed it in Venezuela, in a move labeled illegal internationally, spiriting away the Kremlin's longtime partner Nicolás Maduro, who is set to be tried in New York. Public Fury, Private Calculations Officially, Moscow's representatives have reacted with anger, condemning the attack as a blatant breach of global norms and a dangerous precedent. Yet beyond the official statements, there is a sense of reluctant admiration – and even envy – at the effectiveness of a power grab that Russia once imagined, but failed to execute due to a series of intelligence blunders and Ukraine's strong resistance. “The operation was carried out with precision,” wrote the Kremlin-aligned online channel a popular military blog. “Most likely, this is exactly how our 'special military operation' was supposed to unfold: fast, decisive and conclusive. It’s hard to believe Russia's top general expected to be engaged in combat for this long.” Such commentary have fueled a atmosphere of introspection among pro-war voices, with some openly questioning how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine morphed into a long and bloody conflict. Olga Uskova, said she felt “embarrassment” on Russia's behalf given how brazen the US intervention appeared to be. “Within 24 hours, the US detained Venezuela's leader and seemingly wrapped up his own 'special military operation,’” she stated. Allies in Decline For over twenty years, Venezuela worked to build a web of anti-American allies – from Moscow and Beijing to Havana and Tehran – in the hope of helping to shape a alternative bloc able to challenge Washington. However, even with Russia's foreign minister vowing backing for the Caracas government just in late December, few serious analysts ever believed Moscow would come to his rescue. Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, seen other important partners fall from power or weaken sharply – from Syria's leader to an increasingly weakened Iran – laying bare the limits of the Kremlin's global influence. “For Russia, the situation is deeply uncomfortable,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a key ally and fellow traveler, and Maduro and Putin have long-term relations, forcing Moscow into no option but to express outrage. Yet providing any tangible support to a country so distant is simply not feasible – for practical and operational reasons.” Focus on the Main Front There is also a more practical calculation. Putin's priority, experts note, is Ukraine – and keeping a productive dialogue with the US administration on that front far outweighs the destiny of Caracas. “The Russian and American leaders are presently engaged with a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a much larger strategic game with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a secondary concern,” the analyst concluded. Tangible Costs and New Threats Nevertheless, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a pro-American administration takes power in Caracas, American military specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including advanced Russian-made systems. Those include S-300VM air-defence systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025. Moscow has also provided billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered. A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is oil: American control over Venezuela's enormous oilfields could depress international oil prices, endangering one of Russia's most important sources of income. “If our American 'partners' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.” A Bleak Silver Lining? Yet, some in Moscow see room for a bleak kind of optimism. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they argue, could deal a final blow to the rules-based international order and usher in a more nakedly power-based world order – one where power, rather than rules, shapes outcomes. “Team Trump is tough and cynical in advancing its national interests,” wrote Russia's former president approvingly. “Ousting Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The law of the strongest is evidently more powerful than international law.”