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Well. On one hand, the nation's protracted bid to organize the Cop31 next year has ended in clear failure.

The effort ran for over 36 months for the privilege to host the largest global climate summit and green trade fair, which would have attracted many thousands of people to the South Australian capital next November.

That's not happening. Instead, the conference known as Cop31 is moving to the resort city of Antalya, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Letdown and Mixed Messages

The result will be a significant disappointment to numerous individuals who had believed hosting the climate carnival could help speed up the country's transition from being a fossil fuel economy to a clean energy leader, and bring international focus to the existential plight facing Pacific island nations, who would have been co-hosts.

The process that led to failure has been an opaque mess. In recent days, there have been doubts that the prime minister and other senior figures really wanted the bid to succeed. The prime minister's language were ambiguous at best. This led to stories in the Australian and international media saying the government was withdrawing.

This differed from the communication being conveyed at the Cop30 talks in the Brazilian city, where the Australian climate change minister, Chris Bowen, had just declared the country was "in it to win it".

Ambiguous backing is a recurring problem for the hosting proposal. Although Bowen championed it, other senior members of the government have only sometimes appeared to be interested.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, usually in charge for global environmental talks, has been disengaged and at times outright opposed.

Evidence suggests the prime minister has viewed UN climate conferences a important focus. He hasn't attended one since becoming prime minister in 2022. We'll never know, but some will wonder if more could have been done to get the bid over the line.

A Different Perspective

That's one interpretation. But there is another way to consider it.

In the context the climate discussions this week in South America – and from an international perspective – the announcement on this week may, ironically, have been the most favorable outcome possible.

Bowen set out on that day an novel agreement that he was working on with his Turkish counterpart, the Turkish minister. The Turkish government would be the Cop president, host and primary coordinator, and the Australian delegation – Bowen himself – would assume a role as "chief negotiator", wrangling almost all nations on the matters that the countries actually turn up for – the discussions on how to together address the climate crisis.

Additionally, there would be a greater focus on the Pacific region, including a preliminary meeting on an Pacific island.

Grounds for Scepticism

There are plenty of grounds for doubt. The two nations do not have a strong partnership. The details of the deal had not been completed at the time of writing. The whole thing could fall over before it begins.

But it could also be a way to salvage something useful from what looked like an approaching car crash for the multilateral work on global warming.

Turkey is generally viewed in the global community as having been hellbent on creating disruption in the UN climate process. The system is designed to operate by consensus. Usually, that means if there are multiple countries in the competition those with weaker backing either withdraw gracefully, or a compromise is quietly done to persuade them to exit the race.

Turkey plainly had less support than the joint Pacific proposal to organize the summit. At least 24 of the 28 nations responsible for selecting next year's venue had supported the Australian bid.

But, uniquely, Turkey declined to withdraw. The word "disruption" has been thrown around in the past week, and not only by Australians.

International Dynamics

Ankara's stubbornness can be read as a manifestation of the fracturing geopolitical climate. Without US participation under the former president, there has been no dominant nation with the influence to stare down the petroleum exporters that provided the Turkish government with some cover.

The Turkish president is seen as aligned with Vladimir Putin. Some countries feared a conference hindered from the top if his government led the discussions. And the Germans did not want to have to organize an unprepared Cop31 at the UN climate headquarters in the German city, which is what would have occurred under international regulations if the deadlock wasn't broken.

An Innovative Approach

A path through was necessary. International frameworks is flawed and often unsettling to observe, but global cooperation has demonstrably had an impact in the battle with climate change. This joint approach is a creative idea that maintains progress when it is needed more than ever.

Notwithstanding reasonable concerns of the Australian government over its contradictory stance for increasing fossil fuel exports, climate activists who attend UN conferences see Bowen as a positive influence in the talks. He has been requested to lead negotiation streams at each of the four conferences he has attended.

This matters. Although certain critics have downplayed the importance of a "president of negotiations", experts from research centers and veteran observers at environmental negotiations assert it is crucial to their positive outcome.

"Every successful Cop has been shaped by a leader directing proceedings who can understand, forge agreement and deliver an significant result. This occurred in the German capital in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and Paris in 2015. The reverse happened in Copenhagen in 2009," they note. "This position is critical at the conference except for making sure that delegates are fed."

Unanswered Questions

Multiple unanswered questions. For example, non-governmental organizations is essential at environmental summits. How, if anything, can the federal administration do to stop a crackdown on NGO participation by the Turkish leadership?

Possibly little. However, this doesn't prevent this arrangement looking like the most promising opportunity available to have a summit that may offer something for the Pacific, Australia and the global community. It's worth a try.