Why Middle Eastern Investment Has Not Turned Newcastle into Championship Challengers

The Newcastle manager isn't typically prone to histrionics or sweeping public statements. Based on his standards, his media briefing following Sunday’s loss to West Ham counts as a angry tirade. Newcastle took an early lead but West Ham were ahead by the interval, as well as striking the woodwork and having a penalty revoked by VAR, prompting Howe to execute a three substitutions at the half-time.

“That was the frustrating thing about the first half,” the coach stated. “I almost could have taken anyone off and I believe that was a reflection of our performance level in that moment in the game and it's extremely uncommon for me to have that impression. Actually, I don’t think having done so during my tenure as manager of the club, so I felt the squad needed a significant change at the break. This explains why I made what I did.”

Three key players all came off at the interval and the team did stabilise somewhat in the latter period, without ever really looking like they might get back into the game against a side that had secured just a single victory of their last nine fixtures. Considering the congestion the centre of the table is, with a mere three-point gap separating the top spots from mid-table, and a nine-point margin between the upper and lower ranks, a run of twelve points from 10 games has not left the Magpies adrift but, similarly, they must not finish the season in thirteenth place.

The Problem of Expectations

The challenge to an extent is one of public view. In the Saudi Public Investment Fund, Newcastle have the wealthiest backers in the world. The expectation when the Saudi fund bought 80% of the team in recent years was that it would have a game-changing impact, as Roman Abramovich achieved at Stamford Bridge or the City Group did at the Etihad. The distinction is that both of those owners took over prior to the introduction of financial fair play rules (and the ongoing charges against Manchester City relate to if they violated those regulations once they were implemented).

Financial regulations restrict the capacity of owners, no matter how wealthy, to invest funds on their teams and therefore probably might have slowed any Saudi attempt to raise the team to the standard of City. However there is no need for the club's spending to have been quite as cautious as it has; they could have invested further and remained within the threshold – or simply taken a fairly minor Uefa fine since their major problem is primarily with the continental than the Premier League rules.

Infrastructure Spending and Financial Rules

Additionally, infrastructure spending is excluded from Profit and Sustainability calculations; the easiest way to increase revenue to generate more financial headroom would be to expand or redevelop the arena. Considering the site of St James’ Park, with listed buildings on multiple sides, in reality that likely implies constructing an completely new venue. There was talk in spring of potentially making the short move to Leazes Park – opposition from local groups could surely have been overcome with a promise to build a new park on the existing ground location – but there has not been any progress on that plan. There has occurred significant retrenchment from the PIF on a variety of projects as it refocuses on local investments; the approach to Newcastle appears completely in keeping with that strategic shift.

Player Sales Saga

The Alexander Isak saga was born of that conflict. A bolder management might have portrayed his transfer as necessary to release capital for further investment; instead there was a vain attempt to retain him. That meant the team started the campaign amidst a feeling of disappointment even with the signings of several new players. The opening was mixed: a single victory in their first six games.

But it seemed a turning point was reached. They secured five in six before Sunday, a run that featured demolitions of Union Saint-Gilloise and a Portuguese club in the European competition. That’s why the display against West Ham was so surprising. The issue maybe is that Newcastle’s approach is very aggressive, very high-octane; a minor decrease in intensity can have profound effects. Perhaps the strain of Premier League, Champions League and cup matches, five games in a fortnight, had got to them. Woltemade started all five matches and appeared particularly fatigued.

Reality of Contemporary Soccer

That’s the nature of modern the sport. Coaches have to be prepared to rotate. Howe has been unfortunate that Wissa’s injury has left him lacking attacking options but, regardless of how valid the reasons, the weekend's performance was inexcusable –particularly after taking the lead at a stadium ready to criticize its home team.

Howe will hope it was just a blip, one of those days when all players is below par at once, but if Newcastle are to qualify for the European competition in the future, not to mention one day mount an genuine title challenge, they cannot be as inconsistent as they have been.

Brandon Anderson
Brandon Anderson

A professional poker strategist with over a decade of experience in analyzing odds and coaching players to success.